As President Trump renews waves of strikes against Iran and considers next steps, he faces significant risks home and abroad should he ditch diplomacy and return to an all-out military offensive.
The U.S. military has resumed strikes over the past week, mostly targeting air defense and radar systems and missile and drone launch sites near the Strait of Hormuz, in Trump seeks to break a stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran’s hand in nuclear negotiations.
Trump summoned top advisers to the Situation Room on Tuesday to discuss “devastating strikes on strategic targets in Iran,” according to Axios, while The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday, he’s considering options including sending ground forces to seize Iranian islands and bombing the Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site.
The president also this week reimposed the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports after Iran said it was closing off the Strait of Hormuz once again. Traffic through the waterway has dropped to lows last seen before June 17, when a memorandum of understanding was signed by Washington and Tehran in an attempt to bring about a peace deal.
The U.S. engaged in almost 40 days of full-on war with Iran before pulling back during a ceasefire struck in early April. Should he return to that mode, he risks further depleting munitions stockpiles, triggering a recession, roiling the midterms for the GOP and alienating Arab allies.
Many Republicans in Congress are supportive of Trump taking a hard line against Iran, suggesting the U.S. should “finish the job” with a military blitz seeking to break Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz and possibly topple the regime entirely.
But Trump appears wary of deploying a ground campaign, which military experts say may be necessary to achieve those goals, leaving him in a cycle of diplomacy and aerial strikes.
The first phase of the Iran war already expended a tremendous amount of munitions. Central Command (Centcom) Commander Adm. Brad Cooper told the Senate in May the military fired over 13,000 strike munitions by the time the ceasefire was reached.
The Pentagon is now lobbying Congress to pass a supplemental funding package to help backfill these munitions, in addition to a record $1.5 trillion budget request for fiscal 2027, but it could still take years to bring munitions levels back from the brink.
