It is almost exactly six months until the midterm elections, set for Nov. 3.
As the clock ticks down, the state of the polls is becoming more salient.
For now, the Beltway consensus is that Democrats are strong favorites to take control of the House, where the GOP is defending a tiny majority.
Democrats could also spring a surprise in the Senate, where they had not been expected to have a realistic shot. Many of the battleground states this year were carried by President Trump in 2024, but Democrats have a chance in several, including North Carolina, Ohio and, at a stretch, Texas.
An enormous amount can change in the coming months. Six months ago, few people thought the U.S. would be in a conflict with Iran that is roiling the economy.
But here’s what the polls are saying right now.
Trump is weighing down the GOP
The president’s approval ratings are very poor — and that spells trouble for his party.
Trump’s numbers are at, or near, the lowest point of his second term in many surveys.
An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday found just 37 percent of Americans approving of his job performance and 62 percent disapproving.
The war on Iran and its effects on prices at home — particularly at the gas pump — are pushing Trump’s ratings down. The average per-gallon price of gas nationwide on Monday was $4.45, according to AAA. Before the war began on Feb. 28, the average price was just less than $3.
The ABC/Washington Post poll was far from an outlier.
In the polling average maintained by The Hill’s data partner, Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), Trump is 17 points underwater, with 56.9 percent disapproving and 39.7 percent approving of his job performance.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin has Trump almost 19 points in negative territory — a deficit 8 points larger than where it stood at the start of the year.
In the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average, Trump is 16 points underwater.
Whatever way you cut it, those numbers represent a very stiff headwind for the GOP.
Inflation and the economy are key
Deepening the problem for Republicans, some of Trump’s weakest issues are the topics voters say are most important: the economy and, particularly, rising prices.
The polling numbers on inflation are ominous for the GOP.
Silver’s polling averages have Trump earning the approval of less than than 28 percent of adults on that topic, with a massive 70 percent disapproving.
The RCP figures are only a hair better, with Trump 39 points underwater.
In an Economist/YouGov poll last week, respondents were asked what the most important political issue was for them. Inflation and prices were top of a long list, named by 27 percent of adults. Jobs and the economy came second at 14 percent.
Even the third-placed issue — healthcare — was one on which Democrats have a traditional advantage.
Immigration, a stronger topic for Republicans — though one on which Trump’s ratings have eroded — came fourth, named by 7 percent.
Silver lining for GOP: Democratic Party also seen negatively
Republicans aren’t entirely bereft of reasons for hope.
For one thing, the war on Iran might come to an end sooner rather than later, allowing oil and gas prices to fall closer to prewar levels. It’s also possible that unforeseen events will shift the battleground.
But for the moment, the biggest sliver of hope for the GOP may lie in the fact that both major parties are seen negatively by the electorate.
The DDHQ averages of party favorability ratings show only a narrow gap between the parties. Roughly 55 percent of voters view the GOP unfavorably, but 53 percent feel the same way about the Democratic Party.
Last week’s Economist poll asked a slightly more specific question, about how Americans viewed each party in Congress. Fifty-nine percent of respondents had a negative take on Republicans on Capitol Hill, and 55 percent took the same view of congressional Democrats.
Divining the exact reasons behind those numbers is complicated.
Certainly, widespread voter displeasure with the overall state of the nation is playing into it. Some progressive voters are also unhappy with the Democratic Party for not mounting a more muscular resistance to Trump.
Either way, the bottom line is the Democrats’ numbers aren’t anything to crow about.
Democrats’ generic ballot lead: Significant, not huge
Democrats plainly have the upper hand six months out — but the unusual crosscurrents outlined above make their success less than a slam dunk.
A key polling measure for predicting midterm results is the so-called generic ballot question. Pollsters ask voters some version of whether they would prefer Republicans or Democrats to control Congress, without getting into the specifics of local candidates.
DDHQ and RCP both show Democrats with a roughly 5-point edge on the generic-ballot question.
A 5-point advantage in such a polarized nation isn’t negligible. The past four presidential elections have all been decided by a smaller margin in the popular vote.
Still, a 5-point edge with six months to go shouldn’t have Democrats popping the champagne corks just yet.
Voter enthusiasm favors Dems — probably
Polling results are, infamously, useful only insofar as they can predict which voters will actually cast a ballot.
This can be a particularly tricky business in midterm elections, with no marquee presidential race to draw people to the polls.
The available evidence points toward some level of advantage for Democrats.
The Washington Post/ABC News poll, for example, found 79 percent of Democrats saying they were “absolutely certain” to vote, while only 72 percent of Republicans said the same.
A CNN/SSRS poll released in early April found 84 percent of Democratic voters saying they were “very motivated” or “extremely motivated” to vote in the midterms, while only 74 percent of Republicans felt this way.
Still, there are nuances. Midterm elections generally are thought to favor Republicans because demographic groups that favor Democrats — younger voters, in particular — are viewed as less likely to show up than at presidential elections.
Trump has scrambled this calculus to some degree, however. He has shown an ability to bring sporadic voters to the polls when he is on the ballot. Those same people are far from guaranteed to show up for the GOP on Nov. 3.
