Minnesota is set to hold some of the state’s first elections of this year as two separate shootings tied to the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown have rocked the state in recent weeks.
Voters in parts of St. Paul and portions of the city’s eastern suburbs will be heading to the polls on Tuesday to weigh in on two special elections for House Districts 64A and 47A.
The timing of the races is notable, as they come just days after 37-year-old Alex Pretti was shot and killed by a Border Patrol agent over the weekend. It’s the second shooting to draw headlines in the city, after 37-year-old Renee Good was shot and killed by an ICE officer earlier this month.
Here are the key things to watch as Minnesota holds its special elections amid growing backlash to the shootings:
Will determine partisan control of the state House
The two special state House elections are important because they’ll determine whether Minnesota’s lower chamber remains tied or whether Republicans enjoy an edge.
The Minnesota House was tied 67-67 before former state Rep. Kaohly Her and former state Rep. Amanda Hemmingsen-Jaeger resigned from their seats for new roles, with the resignations soon giving the Minnesota Republicans a 67-65 edge over the Democratic-Farmer-Labor (DFL) Party, which is affiliated with the Democrats.
Sign up for the Morning Report
The latest in politics and policy. Direct to your inbox.
Email address
By signing up, I agree to the Terms of Use, have reviewed the Privacy Policy, and to receive personalized offers and communications via email, on-site notifications, and targeted advertising using my email address from The Hill, Nexstar Media Inc., and its affiliates
In Minnesota state House District 64A, which is entirely within St. Paul in Ramsey County, Democrat Meg Luger-Nikolai and Republican Dan Walsh are vying for the seat. In Minnesota state House District 47A, which includes portions of Maplewood and Woodbury – both located east of St. Paul, Democrat Shelley Buck is running uncontested.
The two parties previously brokered a power-sharing agreement where Rep. Lisa Demuth (R) was named House Speaker until the end of 2026, while most House committees are co-chaired by both parties.
That agreement would stay in place if the DFL wins both elections on Tuesday. On the other hand, the agreement would be upended and give the GOP a new advantage if the Republican candidates win.
Meanwhile, the Minnesota Senate has a 34-33 DFL edge.
Comes amid growing furor over shootings
The special elections are coming at a particularly volatile time in the state, which is reeling from the separate shooting deaths of Good and Pretti.
Both incidents have sparked backlash, though the killing of Pretti has prompted even Republicans to call for an investigation into the Trump administration’s crackdown.
Meanwhile, some Democrats are raising concerns about the impact the chaos could have on the upcoming midterms. During an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) went so far as to suggest that the Trump administration was trying to “interfere” in the upcoming midterms.
“Donald Trump has made it clear that he intends to try to interfere in the upcoming 2026 election,” Murphy said. “He says that his one regret from 2020 was that he didn’t take the voting machines. And it is really alarming that, in this letter, [Attorney General Pam] Bondi says, well, we will get the ICE officers out of Minneapolis if you give us control of your voter lists.”
Some Democrats have also expressed concern that the heavy ICE presence in the state could be disruptive during the Minnesota DFL precinct caucuses.
“Our precinct caucuses on Feb. 3 are supposed to be an in-person neighborhood gathering where we begin to elect delegates who will ultimately endorse our [candidates], and the way that ICE is acting here in the state, it’s making people fearful of even leaving their house,” Minnesota DFL Chair Richard Carlbom told The Hill before the second shooting.
“I am, quite literally this afternoon, delivering more groceries to a friend who is a U.S. citizen who doesn’t feel comfortable leaving their house,” he said on Friday.
Likely to stay in Dem hands
Democrats are cautioning against reading too much into the election results of Tuesday’s races, given both are DFL-favored, including one that’s uncontested. Special elections only offer a small window into the views of a voting electorate.
Adding to the elections’ unusual nature, the weather in the two districts is expected to have a possible low of zero degrees, meaning the two races could see even lower turnout than expected.
On the other hand, some have suggested there could be increased turnout in response to the recent events. Observers will be looking for tea leaves from results in early Minnesota elections, as the state is holding competitive races for both governor and Senate in November.
District 67A in St. Paul could be particularly interesting given its large immigrant population. Data released from the city in 2021 found that more than 60,000 immigrants lived in St. Paul alone in 2019.
