On the menu: A super Tuesday for race-watchers; GOP special election jitters cost Stefanik U.N. gig; Cuomo in command in NYC mayor race; what a Crockett; forget something?
The big events on the political calendar for next week are both on Tuesday: a gonzo state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and a special election in Florida to replace Mike Waltz, the national security adviser to President Trump who finds himself at the center of the scandal over sharing state secrets on a text thread.
We have lots of goodies on those elections below and gave you a deep dive on the Wisconsin race last week. As for the texting brouhaha, suffice it to say that for now, the political consequences for Republicans will be bad and have been made worse by a response that seems aimed more at saving face with base voters and friendly media outlets than showing persuadable voters that the administration takes national security seriously.
But who knows? In the geyser of controversies spewing constantly out of this White House, something will probably soon enough replace “New phone, Houthis” as the hot topic. Not to say that the issues aren’t serious, only that the public attention span, even for a juicy scandal like this one, is short. Democrats won’t be running on the issue next year, even if it will inform an overall narrative about incompetence.
Let me suggest that the more significant date on the calendar for next week is not whatever hearings will be held on the text blunder or Tuesday’s elections, but rather on Wednesday when, after a series of false starts, the president says he will impose massive tariffs on imported goods.
It is, of course, possible that Trump will flinch again. His April 2 deadline for a 25 percent tariff on all imported automobiles as well as a slate of other levies his trade team has been working up on nations around the globe is entirely self-imposed. Trump may, as he has before, blunt the effects or waive some of them entirely.
Rep. Kat Cammack (R-FL) discusses Congressional proxy voting on “The Hill on NewsNation”
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How hard he swings the hammer may be influenced by the release Friday of the latest inflation figures. A jump in consumer prices may drive markets down and again cause Trump to mitigate the “disruptions” from his policies. But on the political balance sheet, it will still probably be marked down as a loss.
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The catalog of bad things for politicians generally falls into one of two categories: Those that undermine a strength and those that reinforce a weakness. In politics, it is no good to live down to the expectations of your opponents, but it is even worse to not meet the expectations of your supporters.
Based on the most obvious interpretation of the results of the 2024 presidential election, Trump won a return ticket to the White House on the strength of two issues, the economy and immigration. Those were the subjects on which Trump most consistently thumped former Vice President Kamala Harris and which voters ranked as their top issues last year.
That’s certainly still true on immigration, where Trump continues to enjoy his strongest approval ratings of any issue. The most recent NBC News poll is typical: 55 percent approved of his handling of border security and immigration, a full 8 points better than his overall approval rating of 47 percent. Growing concerns about Trump’s methods may dampen the mood on immigration, but for now, it is the issue that not only unites Republicans, but also satisfies enough of the swing voters who came his way last year.
So what’s holding Trump’s overall number underwater at a negative 4.4 point rating in this week’s average? Voters haven’t been too thrilled with Trump on his handling of foreign policy, but outside of a major international crisis, the electorate is seldom much moved by foreign affairs. The problem, of course, is the economy.
The recession fears that were tanking markets have somewhat abated, but consumers (which is to say voters) remain anxious, driving the major metric of expected consumer spending down to its lowest level since the middle of the pandemic. Some of this may be the uncertainty among the millions of federal workers and contractors as government layoffs continue, but economists seem to be putting most of the blame on fears of a trade war and higher prices as tariffs are locked in.
That’s reflected in Trump’s approval ratings in a slew of recent polls.
Trump got a boffo (for him) 49 percent overall job approval rating in the latest Fox News poll, but just 43 percent approved of his handling of the economy, for a net economy rating of negative 13 points.
Ditto in the most recent CNN poll, which found 45 percent approval overall, but 44 percent on the economy, for a net economy rating of negative 1 point. Even pollsters that typically show rosier numbers for Trump, like the methodologically dubious Morning Consult, show Trump underwater on the economy for the first time.
And that same NBC News poll that showed Trump with clear majority support on immigration? Just 44 percent were happy with the president’s performance on the economy for a net economy rating of negative 10.
What’s notable here is that Trump’s bad numbers on the economy are not being driven by pro-business Republicans or the traditional conservatives who typically abhor tariffs. In Gallup surveys taken over the first two weeks of March, Republicans gave Trump an A on the economy with 90 percent approval — higher than on any other issue. What killed Trump’s number, which clocked in at only 41 percent overall on the economy, was that just 34 percent of independent voters, the majority-makers in the electorate — gave him a thumbs-up on the economy.
In summer 2021, then-President Biden called inflation “temporary” and referred to higher prices as “transitory effects” of supply chain disruptions from the pandemic. He made what appeared to be a politically obtuse claim because he was trying to calm moderate Democrats in Washington who were getting anxious about the effects of increased government spending on inflation. Biden’s argument was that Democrats should plow ahead on new deficit spending because the higher prices would pass before the additional trillions from infrastructure spending and another stimulus package — what was then the Green New Deal but would become the inaptly named Inflation Reduction Act — kicked in.
Biden blew off voters’ concerns because he had convinced himself of the rosier outlook on his policies. He wasn’t lying about inflation, he was just willing to believe the version of the truth that led to him getting more of the things he wanted. Obsessed with turning the post-COVID-19 recovery into a transformational period that would build his legacy, Biden saw what he wanted to see.
On Wednesday, Trump is threatening to repeat Biden’s mistakes. No doubt he and his supporters believe that the benefits of protectionism will arrive soon enough to offset the surge in prices that tariffs are bound to bring, just as Biden and his advisers thought about new spending. It’s a mighty big gamble on an idea that has never worked before. And if Trump bets wrong, it’s a political problem that will long outlive anything else that comes out of next week.
The political class cares a great deal about text-thread scandals and pricey special elections, but persuadable voters care about prices. Those priorities brought Trump back into power, but could soon enough boomerang on his party.
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NUTRITIONAL INFORMATION
Trump job performance
Average approval: 46.4 percent
Average disapproval: 50.8 percent
Net acore: Negative 4.4 points
Change from last week: +1.8 points
[Average includes: Ipsos/Reuters: 45 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove; Fox News: 49 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove; Echelon: 49 percent approve – 48 percent disapprove; NBC News: 47 percent approve – 51 percent disapprove; Quinnipiac: 42 percent approve – 53 percent disapprove]
GOPers now shrug at TikTok ban
Asked of Republicans: Would you support or oppose the U.S. government banning TikTok?
March 2023 Now
Support 60 percent 39 percent
Oppose 19 percent 28 percent
Not sure 21 percent 33 percent
[Pew Research Center American Trends Panel]
ON THE SIDE: LEAPING LIZARDS
The New York Times: “Iguanas inhabit tropical, subtropical and desert regions of the Americas—but surprisingly, they’re also found on a few incredibly remote Pacific islands, such as Fiji. Exactly how iguanas could have reached these islands in the first place is a hotly debated topic. … Now [scientists] have offered an answer to that question, and it involves a record-breaking journey. In a study … they suggest the lizards hitched a 5,000-mile ride on floating vegetation from the western coast of North America within the past 34 million years. That trip would be the longest transoceanic dispersal of any terrestrial vertebrate known to scientists. … After studying the DNA of more than 200 iguana specimens from museum collections worldwide, the team determined that Fiji iguanas … are most closely related to the North American desert iguana genus. … Previous theories … had even suggested they were the sole survivors of an ancient iguana lineage that populated more regions of the Pacific.”
PRIME CUTS
High-stakes Wisconsin Supreme Court race concludes Tuesday: NewsNation: “The Wisconsin Supreme Court race … could have ripple effects nationwide. The race is officially nonpartisan, but endorsements and funds from outside the state have pulled politics into the fray, with Presidents Donald Trump and Barack Obama offering endorsements and billionaires including Elon Musk, George Soros and Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker donating to campaigns. Wisconsin voters have been bombarded with attack ads. One mailer read, “Susan Crawford will destroy gun rights in Wisconsin.” Another claimed, “Elon Musk thinks the Wisconsin Supreme Court is for sale.” … How this race shapes up could influence other races, with Democrats putting out attack ads against Musk. That could be a strategy used in other races if it succeeds.”
Spending surge could push race past $100 million: USA Today: “Combined, spending on the race has already surpassed the $51 million record for the country’s most expensive judicial election, set two years ago also in Wisconsin. That number this year could exceed $100 million. The largest chunk of change has come from the pockets of the world’s richest man. Musk has gone all in on the swing state that Trump won by less than a point in 2024, dropping $19.3 million on the race, according to state campaign records. That includes his $2 million gift to the state’s GOP last week, as well as spending by two groups tied to the billionaire. Musk’s political action committee, America PAC, and the political nonprofit he funds, Building America’s Future, have together contributed about $16 million toward boosting the right-leaning candidate’s campaign.”
Massive turnout shatters record: Wisconsin Public Radio: “Nearly 408,000 people have already cast their ballots ahead of next week’s election, which includes the high-profile Wisconsin Supreme Court race. The number of people choosing early, in-person voting is nearly double what it was during the state’s last Supreme Court race. … As of Tuesday, clerks across Wisconsin had received about 140,000 more absentee ballots than they did ahead of the 2023 state Supreme Court election, according to data from the state’s elections commission. That works out to an increase of more than 52 percent year to year.”
Warning signs for GOP in Pennsylvania state Senate loss: The Hill: “Democrat James Malone won an open Pennsylvania state Senate seat in a major upset in a district that comfortably voted for President Trump in November, according to a Decision Desk HQ projection. Malone, the mayor of East Petersburg, narrowly defeated Republican Lancaster County Commissioner Josh Parsons to represent Senate District 36 for the remainder of former state Sen. Ryan Aument’s (R) term. … Parsons was considered likely to win in the conservative-leaning district, which Trump carried in November with 57 percent of the vote, and McCormick won with 56 percent. Aument had even been unopposed in his last election in 2022. But Malone was able to overcome the odds, and the Democratic Party continued its strong performance in under-the-radar elections since Trump took office. Democrats notched another major upset in a strongly conservative Iowa state Senate district in January, also holding the Westchester County executive seat in New York, among other more low-key successes.”
Parties play expectations game in Tuesday special election to replace Waltz: The Wall Street Journal: “Republican political operatives have grown concerned about a special election in Florida, with the race for a solidly red House seat emerging as more competitive than expected, creating a potential headache for the GOP two months into President Trump’s second term. While the party still largely expects candidate Randy Fine, a fiery Florida state lawmaker, to win former Rep. Mike Waltz’s 6th Congressional District seat, the party is rushing ahead of the April 1 election day to reach Republican voters and make sure they turn out. Waltz resigned the seat in the Daytona Beach area to become Trump’s national security adviser. Trump allies worry a weak showing in the Florida contest would be read—fairly or unfairly—as a referendum on the president’s record headed into the midterm elections in 2026, when control of the Senate and House are on the line.”
Special election worries sink Stefanik U.N. bid: The Hill: “The White House has informed the chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee that it is withdrawing Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) nomination to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, reflecting how critical her vote is in the House to passing President Trump’s agenda.”
Populist fury fuels Dem rallies: The Washington Post: “Democrats are turning up by the thousands at rallies across the country — showing the stirrings of a populist uprising against President Donald Trump’s drastic cuts to government agencies and demanding that their leaders fight harder to save programs that benefit the middle class. … And at gatherings held by Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna in key California swing districts last weekend, questioners who took the microphone demanded that their party’s leaders do more to stop Trump and Musk from slashing programs that serve vulnerable populations such as veterans and Social Security beneficiaries. … Mike Arnold, a 74-year-old Air Force veteran from Cathedral City, California, said he attended a Khanna event in Norco this past weekend, because he ‘got tired of screaming at the TV.’ [He] said he isn’t sure the country will make it to Democratic elections in 2026.”
SHORT ORDER
Poll puts Cuomo way ahead in New York City’s June mayoral primary — The Hill
Colin Allred ponders another Senate run, this time against a divided GOP — The Dallas Morning News
Dems weigh backing independents in red-state Senate races — Split Ticket
Maine Dems set for factious gov primary — The Downballot
24 percent of voters want to end federal funding for public broadcasting — Pew Research
TABLE TALK
Riiiiiiight …
“I wasn’t thinking about the governor’s condition—I was thinking about the planes, trains, and automobiles he used to transfer migrants into communities led by Black mayors, deliberately stoking tension and fear among the most vulnerable.” — Statement from Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) saying that calling Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “Governor Hot Wheels” was not a jab at his use of a wheelchair.
The red menace
“Well, he is a puppet. But, no.” — Paula Kerger, the chief executive of PBS, when asked sarcastically at a House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform if Elmo is a Communist.
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FOR DESSERT: PHONE, WALLET, KEYS …
KABC: “A United Airlines flight that left Los Angeles bound for China Saturday had to turn around after the pilot realized they did not have their passport on them. United flight 198 departed the Los Angeles International Airport Saturday at 2 p.m. and was headed to Shanghai. Two hours into the flight, the plane had to turn around and divert to San Francisco after the pilot realized they did not have their passport for entry into China. United provided meal vouchers and compensation to the more than 250 passengers on board, according to a statement. A new crew took over the flight, which took off again a few hours later. It eventually landed in China about six hours behind schedule.”
Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for The Hill and NewsNation, the host of “The Hill Sunday” on NewsNation and The CW, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the author of books on politics and the media.
