{"id":8491,"date":"2024-11-25T11:10:02","date_gmt":"2024-11-25T03:10:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=8491"},"modified":"2024-11-25T11:10:05","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T03:10:05","slug":"chinese-exports-to-hit-record-this-year-before-second-trump-term","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=8491","title":{"rendered":"Chinese Exports to Hit Record This Year Before Second Trump Term"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

(Bloomberg) —<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists expect Chinese exports to reach a historical high this year as customers rush to front-load orders given President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s threat of higher tariffs when he takes office in January.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Export growth will accelerate to 7% in the final three months from the same period last year, according to the median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Nov. 15-21. That\u2019s an upgrade from the 5% gain seen in October ahead of the US election and would push total exports this year to $3.548 trillion \u2014 above the previous record in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIn the next few months, Chinese exports might benefit from panic-stockpiling by foreign companies,\u201d said Erica Tay, an economist with Maybank Investment Banking Group. \u201cThe specter of a trade war will probably cause China\u2019s policymakers to lean more heavily on pro-consumption stimulus measures next year.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Economists Upgrade China’s Exports Growth Outlook | Expectations for factory-gate prices, investment weakened\u00a9\u00a0Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Exports already started off this quarter with the fastest growth\u00a0since July 2022<\/a>, putting China on track for a record trade surplus that could reach almost $1 trillion this year. Beijing has continued to look to sales abroad to offset the weakness of domestic demand even as officials pivoted in recent weeks by pumping\u00a0stimulus into the economy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the campaign trail, Trump threatened to increase the levies on Chinese goods to as high as 60%, a level that Bloomberg Economics predicts would decimate trade between the world\u2019s two biggest economies. During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs of up to 25% on more than $300 billion of Chinese shipments \u2014 triggering retaliation from Beijing \u2014 and President Joe Biden has largely kept them in place. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Bloomberg Economics Says…<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina\u2019s recent pro-growth pivot has potential to put the economy on a faster track. A trade war with the US in 2025 threatens that prospect. The challenge for Beijing is to turn its stimulus plans into growth traction and shield the economy from another wave of Trump tariffs.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Chang Shu, Eric Zhu and David Qu, economist. For full analysis, click here<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prospect of an expanded trade war after Trump returns to the White House is raising expectations for greater stimulus going into next year, as China braces for a new era of protectionism. In contrast to the booming exports, import growth has flat-lined as the domestic economy struggles to pick up, provoking a global backlash from countries that fear the flood of cheaper Chinese goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China\u2019s gross domestic product is set to expand 4.9% in the fourth quarter, up from the 4.8% projected last month, Bloomberg\u2019s poll showed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate China will free up money for banks to lend by cutting their reserve requirement ratio by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, while holding key policy rates such as the seven-day reverse repo steady until next year. The expectations are unchanged from the October survey. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The central bank last cut the RRR in September, shortly after Governor Pan Gongsheng unveiled an array of aggressive steps to put a floor under China\u2019s growth slowdown. Last month, Pan reiterated the People\u2019s Bank of China may lower the ratio by another 25 to 50 basis points by the end of the year depending on liquidity conditions in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Chinese Exports on Track For Another Bumper Year | Shipments might hit a record this year if growth continues at current pace\u00a9\u00a0China’s General Administration of Customs, Bloomberg calculations<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe assume a bigger tariff shock compared to 2018-2019, but China is now less dependent on the US, has developed a playbook to react \u2014 including yuan deprecation \u2014 and will add stimulus,\u201d said Arjen van Dijkhuizen, senior economist at ABN Amro Bank NV.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(Bloomberg) — Economists expect Chinese exports to reach a historical high this year as customers rush to front-load orders given President-elect Donald Trump\u2019s threat of higher tariffs when he takes office in January. 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