{"id":7920,"date":"2024-10-14T15:19:22","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T07:19:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=7920"},"modified":"2024-10-14T15:19:26","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T07:19:26","slug":"democratic-voter-registration-raises-red-flags-for-harris","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=7920","title":{"rendered":"Democratic voter registration raises red flags for Harris"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Democrats\u2019 voter registration advantage has dropped in three key battleground states \u2014 Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada \u2014 raising a red flag for Vice President Harris as experts cite a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party, generally, as problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Arizona, another key battleground state, Republicans have seen their voter registration advantage increase substantially, which could make it tougher for Harris to carry a state that President Biden narrowly won in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other presidential battleground states, including Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin, do not register voters by party.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shift in voter registration away from Democrats in Pennsylvania and North Carolina may explain why the Harris campaign has tacked to the center on issues such as fracking and tax policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Nevada, Democrats have seen their voter registration advantage drop, though Harris, unlike those other states, maintains a clear lead over former President Trump in the polling averages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf you look at the changes from 2020 to 2024, Democrats are down about 300,000 voters and Republicans are up about 70,000. Nonaffiliated independent voters are up about 83,000, 85,000 voters,\u201d said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said declining Democratic voter registration in some parts of Pennsylvania is driven by \u201cdisenchantment with the party in power Washington.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cPeople feel really negatively about the Biden presidency,\u201d he added. \u201cYeah, it\u2019s a red flag, and they\u2019re trying to fix it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yost warned that declining Democratic voter registration is a challenge for Harris in swing counties, such as Erie, North Hampton and Bucks, and in rural counties where she wants to keep Trump\u2019s margin of victory as small as possible, such as Fayette County.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s definitely a warning sign, but we knew this was going to be a close race. This is another example of that,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Hill\/Decision Desk HQ\u2019s analysis of recent polls in Pennsylvania show Harris leading Trump by 1 point in the Keystone State but projects that both candidates have an equal probability of winning it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

David Paleologos, the director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University in Boston, said Democrats had about a 666,000-person voter registration advantage over Republicans in Pennsylvania in 2020, which has shrunk to a 354,000-person advantage in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said the Democrats\u2019 voter registration advantage in North Carolina has shrunk from plus-393,000 voters in 2020 to approximately plus-130,000 voters in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe general shift has been away from being registered as a Democrat over the last four years,\u201d Paleologos told The Hill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s been more of a decrease of registered Democrats\u201d than a surge in Republican voter registrations, he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI don\u2019t think a lot of people have really put their arms around the fact that when Trump won North Carolina in 2020, there were like 390,000 more registered Democrats and he still won, and today the advantage of Democrats over Republicans is only like 130,000. It\u2019s been cut by two-thirds of an advantage,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cDespite any gains that Harris may have made or microtargeting she may have done \u2026 Trump looks positioned to maybe widen what some of the polls are showing in North Carolina,\u201d Paleologos observed of the Tar Heel State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lara Putnam, a historian at the University of Pittsburgh who studies election data, said older Democrats are dying out in Pennsylvania, while other voters who were once classified as \u201cReagan Democrats\u201d are changing their party affiliation to Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe basic net-net is more people moving from Democratic registration to Republican registration,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe bulk of that has been folks you might call Reagan Democrats, people who were registered as Democrats but are in communities where there\u2019s been a pretty steady shift to identifying more with Republicans, slowly changing their registration to match their voting preference,\u201d she explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese are folks in the Rust Belt communities,\u201d she added. \u201cThe bigger picture is the decline of union strength and the movement of economic dynamism elsewhere has fractured the connection between Democratic voting and old industrial areas.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democratic strategists in Pennsylvania and North Carolina acknowledge that their party\u2019s voter registration advantage has eroded in those two key states since Biden won Pennsylvania and narrowly lost North Carolina in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They say that the shifting registration numbers are catching up to voting behavior, as registered Democrats who voted for Trump or other Republicans have only recently come around to changing their party registration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And they argue that many new voters registering as independent or unaffiliated with any party are likely to support Harris over Trump.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat\u2019s happening is that some registered Democrats are changing parties to reflect how they\u2019ve been voting for years. A 2020 Trump voter who changes his registration from Democrat to Republican in 2024 doesn\u2019t indicate much about how voting in Pennsylvania will change in 2024,\u201d said J.J. Balaban, a Democratic strategist based in Pennsylvania.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In North Carolina, Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson said younger voters who are likely to vote for Harris are increasingly registering as unaffiliated. And he said one major reason is that both parties have a bad reputation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cYes, Democrats\u2019 registration has dropped and Republicans\u2019 has moved up marginally, but the truth is that people are just registering as unaffiliated. The unaffiliateds now make the largest segment of voters,\u201d Jackson told The Hill. \u201cI have to tell you I think it\u2019s because both national party brands are in the crapper with voters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEspecially a lot of new, first-time voters. They just don\u2019t have an allegiance to the party. But I will tell you that what we see is that unaffiliated voters, the large majority of them, are not unaffiliated. \u2026 Most of them align with one party or the other,\u201d he said. \u201cThere\u2019s a small segment of people in that sliver that truly are ping-pong voters, that are swing voters.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Hill\/Decision Desk HQ gives Trump a 64 percent chance of winning North Carolina and finds him with a 1-point advantage over Harris in polling averages for the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paleologos, of Suffolk University, says the margins between the parties in voter registration have shifted in two other swing states, which are presidential and U.S. Senate battlegrounds: Arizona and Nevada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Constantin Querard, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, said GOP officials and activists have made a concerted push to increase Republican Party registration in the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Republican Party gets credit for actually going out and doing the work on the ground that needs to be done,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said Republican voter registration nationwide has increased by 1.2 million people, while Democratic voter registration has dropped by 800,000 people since 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cNationally, you\u2019re talking about a 2 million-vote swing toward Republicans in the last two years,\u201d he said. \u201cThe Republican brand is doing better than the Democratic brand. I don\u2019t think it\u2019s surprising to see the sorts of gains we\u2019ve made in Arizona.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Arizona, Republicans have doubled the voter registration advantage they had over Democrats in 2020, when Biden won the state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhen you look at Arizona, which Biden won \u2026 Arizona had a net registration advantage for Republicans of 130,000, but that\u2019s doubled. Now the Republican registration advantage in Arizona is 259,000 [people],\u201d Paleologos said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Paleologos said that explains why the Suffolk University poll conducted in late September showed Trump leading Harris by 6 points in Arizona.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI wasn\u2019t shocked we had [a] Trump plus-6 state in Arizona,\u201d he said. \u201cWhen you look at all of the factors, it made sense to me.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Nevada, Paleologos said Democrats have seen their voter registration advantage fall away.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said Democrats\u2019 had a net registration advantage of nearly 79,000 in 2020. It has since fallen to a net advantage of plus-29,000 registered voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt could be enough to keep it close, or it could go to Trump, just because they\u2019ve lost 50,000 net registered Democrats,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jon Ralston, CEO of The Nevada Independent and a leading political commentator in the state, said the Democratic voter advantage in Nevada was about 5 points in 2020 and it now stands at 1 point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s not because the Rs have gained, they have just lost many fewer voters as indie voters have exploded. Still, it\u2019s a concern for Dems,\u201d he wrote in an email to The Hill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ralston observed in a recent column that the \u201cshifting\u201d registration numbers in Clark County, Nevada\u2019s most populous county, has made Democrats \u201capparently vulnerable.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Between Oct. 1 and 9, Republicans gained at least 1,118 more registrations than Democrats in Clark County.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s a departure from what happened over the first nine days of October in 2018, 2020 and 2022. In each of those previous years, Democrats gained more than 2,000 more registrations than Republicans in that county.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Clark County has more than 2.3 million people, more than two-thirds of the entire state. Biden carried the state by a margin of 33,500 votes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Democrats\u2019 voter registration advantage has dropped in three key battleground states \u2014 Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada \u2014 raising a red flag for Vice President Harris as experts cite a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party, generally, as problems. In Arizona, another key battleground state, Republicans have seen their […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":7921,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[2534,2794,2661],"class_list":["post-7920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","tag-harris","tag-registration","tag-voter"],"yoast_head":"\nDemocratic voter registration raises red flags for Harris - LISTEN WORLD<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=7920\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Democratic voter registration raises red flags for Harris - LISTEN WORLD\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Democrats\u2019 voter registration advantage has dropped in three key battleground states \u2014 Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada \u2014 raising a red flag for Vice President Harris as experts cite a lack of enthusiasm for the Biden administration brand and the Democratic Party, generally, as problems. 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