{"id":7860,"date":"2024-10-11T12:56:45","date_gmt":"2024-10-11T04:56:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=7860"},"modified":"2024-10-11T12:56:48","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T04:56:48","slug":"can-kamala-harris-beat-donald-trump-latest-poll-updates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=7860","title":{"rendered":"Can Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? Latest poll updates"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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trump harris indycomp polls lj (1).jpg
\u00a9 The Independent\/Liam James<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump in less than a month as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With just weeks to go, a new poll now finds Trump leading in multiple swing states, with margins mostly too close to call between the two candidates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Trump may still be losing his grip on older generations of voters, with the latest New York Times polls showing the two candidates split by a hairline \u2014 and Harris ahead by 3 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So how will Harris and Trump fare in November?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest average of national polls, collated by FiveThirtyEight, shows Harris with a 2.5-point lead over Trump. On average, Harris has been marginally ahead of Trump in national polls for several weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, the latest set of swing state polls from Emerson College has Trump leading in four out of seven swing states, and Harris leading in just one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The polls show neither candidate leading by more than two points in any battleground state, meaning that, just weeks before election day, the race is still far too close to call.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump is now leading by a hair in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, the candidates are tied in Michigan \u2014 where Harris previously seemed to be leading\u2014 and Wisconsin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The poll also revealed that the Trump-Harris gender divide is wildly different in each state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Arizona, for example, there does not appear to be a significant distinction between how men and women are voting. But in all other swing states, there\u2019s a noticeable gender divide, especially in Georgia, where Harris enjoys a 12-point lead among women, while Trump has a 14-point lead among men.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Demographics<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The latest polls from the New York Times<\/em>\/Siena College have Harris ahead by 3 points, at 49 percent and Trump at 46 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The strongest support group for Harris remains young voters and those from non-white backgrounds. Meanwhile, Trump\u2019s key base are white, non-college voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, to the chagrin of the Trump campaign, the poll suggests that older generations of voters are no longer staunchly Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For both Gen X and Boomers, Trump\u2019s lead has significantly diminished over the last few New York Times<\/em>\/Siena College polls.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, the two candidates are effectively tied among both groups; as Trump has just a 1 and 2 point lead, within the +-2.4 margin of error.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it remains to be seen how this might change in the final stretch<\/a>, the Republican Party has won the over-65 set in every election since 2000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The gender divide between Trump and Harris voters remains strong, with women leaning left and men leaning right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unstable polls in Florida<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There\u2019s been a flurry of interest around polls in Florida in the past few weeks, with Harris appearing to encroach on Trump\u2019s lead in his home state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In particular, figures from the historically Republican pollster RMG Research<\/a> showed Trump with 50 percent of the vote and Harris with 48 percent in Florida, which is home to Mar-a-Lago and several key Republicans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, this morning\u2019s polls from The<\/em> New York Times <\/em>show Trump ahead by a strong +13 points in the Sunshine State, at 55 percent to Harris\u2019s 41 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Though this is out of line with several recent polls<\/a> in the state, New York Times <\/em>analyst Nate Cohn<\/a> suggests that this poll is not an outlier, saying: \u201cMr Trump [excels] in states where Republicans performed well in the 2022 midterm elections \u2014 as they did in Florida. As a result, this poll is not the usual outlier.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIf Florida becomes more solidly Republican in 2024, it suggests that the upheaval during and after the pandemic has had a lasting effect on American politics.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vance wins the VP debate and a popularity boost<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Last week\u2019s debate between Ohio Senator Vance and Minnesota Governor Walz turned expectations on its head; with betting markets and pre-polls eyeing Walz <\/a>as the presumed winner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not only did Vance \u201cwin\u201d the debate, but his performance appears to have done wonders for his public perception, which had been suffering for months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our analysis before the debate found that Walz led Trump, Vance, and even Harris in terms of favorability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vance received an +11 point boost in favorability from last week\u2019s debate, according to the latest poll from YouGov.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leaves Vance in a neutral position, while voters had an overall \u201311 percent unfavorable opinion of him before the debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most interestingly, Vance improved his favorability by an astonishing +19 points among Democrats. Although, overall, he is still at a net \u201352 percent negative score among this group.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Walz also received a more modest 3-point boost, reaching 15 percent favorability in YouGov\u2019s poll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Walz\u2019s performance was not debate-winning, he is still the most-liked candidate, and he even improved his favorability among independent voters following the debate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Among his own party, though, he lost approval from 7 percent of voters, still ending up at a net-positive position of 72 percent favorability with Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Snap polls following the debate<\/a> show that viewers were split on both candidates and Vance came out a few points ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A CBS\/YouGov poll found that 42 percent of viewers considered Vance the debate winner, compared to 41 percent for Walz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Walz did emerge as more in touch with the average American, and more likely to share voters\u2019 vision for America.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vice President Kamala Harris will go head-to-head with Donald Trump in less than a month as Americans cast their votes in the 2024 election. With just weeks to go, a new poll now finds Trump leading in multiple swing states, with margins mostly too close to call between the two candidates. But Trump may still […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":7861,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[12],"tags":[2777,2534,2609],"class_list":["post-7860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-usa","tag-beat","tag-harris","tag-kamala"],"yoast_head":"\nCan Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump? 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