{"id":6128,"date":"2024-05-18T15:31:04","date_gmt":"2024-05-18T07:31:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=6128"},"modified":"2024-05-18T15:31:08","modified_gmt":"2024-05-18T07:31:08","slug":"from-tsai-to-lai-the-past-present-and-future-of-taiwans-foreign-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=6128","title":{"rendered":"From Tsai to Lai: The Past, Present, and Future of Taiwan\u2019s Foreign Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Lai Ching-te, Taiwan\u2019s fifth popularly elected president, is set to be sworn in on May 20 and will deliver his inaugural address in front of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will be welcoming its third term in government but, unlike its two previous terms, will begin without a legislative majority.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Similarly, despite its popularity, the DPP inevitably carries lingering grievances from having governed Taiwan for eight years. In other words, the Lai administration should expect a bumpy road ahead, even if the party continues to enjoy popular support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this context, Lai Ching-te\u2019s inaugural speech holds particular significance, as it will be his first opportunity to publicly present his policy platform and plans for the future. Before assessing how Lai might continue or adjust the foreign policy approach from his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen, a detailed analysis of Tsai\u2019s foreign policy over the past eight years and the changing international environment is essential. By analyzing Tsai\u2019s inaugural speeches from 2016 and 2020, we may gain insight into the possible trajectory of the new government\u2019s foreign policy and its implications for the future of Taiwan-U.S. relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tsai\u2019s Foreign Policy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under President Tsai\u2019s leadership over the past eight years, the DPP government has established a series of foreign policy foundations. When Tsai took office in 2016, she introduced \u201csteadfast diplomacy,\u201d a policy aimed at building a \u201cdemocratic alliance\u201d by deepening exchanges with other democratic countries through shared values such as democracy and freedom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tsai had outlined her \u201csteadfast diplomacy\u201d in both of her inauguration speeches. In 2016, Tsai stated her government\u2019s commitment:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2026 to fulfill our duty as a citizen of the world and contribute towards diplomatic and global issues. We will bring Taiwan closer to the world, and the world closer to Taiwan\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taiwan has been a model citizen in global civil society. Since our democratization, we have persisted in upholding the universal values of peace, freedom, democracy and human rights. It is with this spirit that we join the alliance of shared values and concerns for global issues. We will continue to deepen our relationships with friendly democracies including the United States, Japan and Europe to advance multifaceted cooperation on the basis of shared values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the ambitious tone of her inaugural speech, Tsai\u2019s steadfast diplomacy progressed only incrementally during her first term. However, during this time the world\u2019s attitudes toward China began to shift, particularly in the United States. The China-U.S. trade war and Beijing\u2019s wolf-warrior diplomacy signaled a more aggressive and belligerent China. This shift provided Taiwan with more opportunities to assert its steadfast diplomacy based on shared values.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In Tsai\u2019s second term, Taiwan achieved significant diplomatic successes. Taiwan\u2019s experience with managing the COVID-19 pandemic and its willingness to provide equipment and assistance to other nations had won Taiwan widespread support; supply chain problems that arose during the pandemic also highlighted how critical Taiwan is to the global economy, especially in the field of semiconductor manufacturing. The United States under President Joe Biden continued to deepen ties with Taiwan, and European states also responded positively to Taiwan\u2019s diplomatic efforts, especially Central and Eastern European countries like Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Previous governments in Taiwan often prioritized economic benefits and the expansion of international space as the basis of their foreign policies, maintaining a careful distance from international disputes to avoid entanglement. However, Tsai\u2019s steadfast diplomatic strategy began to place greater importance on shared values, even more so than economic interests. Politically, Taiwan clearly chose to align with fellow democracies against authoritarian regimes. For instance, when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the Tsai government quickly joined the United States and Japan in imposing sanctions on Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tsai\u2019s China Policy<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From the inaugural speeches of Tsai in 2016 and 2020, we can observe fundamental changes in Taiwan\u2019s approach to Taiwan-China relations. These changes are reflected in three main aspects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

First, there was a noticeable change in how Tsai referred to China. In her 2016 speech, she avoided any direct mention of China, seemingly to avoid controversy and not to anger Beijing. But by 2020, not only did she use terms like \u201cthe other side\u201d (\u5c0d\u5cb8) and \u201cBeijing\u201d in her Mandarin speech, but she also directly adopted the terms \u201cBeijing\u201d and \u201cChina\u201d in the English translation. This indicated a shift in the Tsai administration\u2019s approach to a firmer and clearer expression of her China policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Second, in 2016 Tsai spent a significant portion of her speech clarifying the events of 1992 that led Beijing to assert Taiwan had agreed it was part of China. Beijing had warned that acceptance of the so-called 1992 Consensus was a prerequisite for any engagement with Tsai\u2019s government. In her first inaugural address, Tsai said that in 1992 \u201cthe two institutions representing each side across the Strait\u2026 arrived at various joint acknowledgments and understandings\u2026in a spirit of mutual understanding and a political attitude of seeking common ground while setting aside differences.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, she placed more emphasis on the \u201cover twenty years of interactions and negotiations across the Strait\u201d after 1992, saying that \u201cit is based on such existing realities and political foundations that the stable and peaceful development of the cross-Strait relationship must be continuously promoted.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By 2020, Tsai no longer mentioned 1992 at all, instead emphasizing \u201cpeace, parity, democracy, and dialogue\u201d and explicitly rejecting the \u201cone country, two systems\u201d model, demonstrating a firm stance against Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Third, Tsai shifted her China policy stance from \u201csetting aside disputes so as to enable joint development\u201d to demanding that both sides take joint responsibility for maintaining regional peace and stability. In 2016, Tsai attempted to signal good faith when she invited Beijing to establish dialogue with her administration, despite Beijing\u2019s refusal to communicate. By 2020, she stated that \u201c[c]ross-strait relations have reached a historical turning point. Both sides have a duty to find a way to coexist over the long term and prevent the intensification of antagonism and differences.\u201d Tsai no longer sought to extend goodwill unilaterally, but expected the leaders on both sides to jointly take responsibility, particularly when she saw no reciprocation from China to pursue mutual exchanges on equal footing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The shift in the Tsai administration\u2019s China policy was particularly influenced by Beijing\u2019s behavior, most notably Chinese leader Xi Jinping\u2019s \u201cFive Points\u201d speech and the events in Hong Kong in 2019. Xi\u2019s \u201cFive Points\u201d speech in January 2019 made clear that he is not open to any negotiated resolution other than for Taiwan to become a part of Chinese territory under the \u201cone country two systems\u201d framework. At the same time, Xi\u2019s violent crackdown of pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong later that year proved how Beijing can also renege the promises made under the \u201cone country two systems\u201d framework at any time. After over two decades of embracing the \u201cone country two systems\u201d framework, Hong Kong found itself under extensive suppression by Beijing, resulting in the erosion of its economic dynamism, democratic freedoms, and fundamental identity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Xi had left no room for Taiwan to negotiate with China. On the one hand, he was forcing Taiwan to accept \u201cone country, two systems\u201d; on the other hand, he was demonstrating through his crackdown on Hong Kong that \u201cone country, two systems\u201d is only a front for eventual political assimilation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the broader international context, shifts in China-U.S. relations also profoundly impacted Taiwan\u2019s foreign policy, enabling Taiwan to more confidently confront Beijing\u2019s aggressive stance. For example, the 2022 visit by then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi not only strengthened the relationship between Taiwan and the United States but also showcased Taiwan\u2019s significant role in international politics. This visit, to some extent, bolstered Taiwan\u2019s confidence and firmness in its stance against Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lai Ching-te\u2019s Own Foreign Policy Direction<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prior to his inauguration on May 20, President-elect Lai \u2013 who also served as Tsai\u2019s vice president \u2013 remarked on many occasions that he would follow in Tsai\u2019s footsteps on national security and foreign affairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the DPP\u2019s Central Executive Committee meeting on April 24, for instance, Lai emphasized that there is an \u201cunchanged commitment and goodwill\u201d to work with China, so long as the two sides conducted relations on mutually equal and respectful terms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lai\u2019s intention to continue Tsai\u2019s policy directions is also reflected in his appointments for his national security team. He kept many of Tsai\u2019s trusted advisers and veteran Cabinet members, including appointing Foreign Minister Joseph Wu as secretary-general of the National Security Council (NSC) and former NSC Secretary-General Wellington Koo as minister of national defense.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On May 1, at the DPP Standing Committee meeting, Lai stated that his Cabinet picks are experienced and \u201cwill continue President Tsai\u2019s steady, responsible, and reliable international policies.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lai\u2019s inaugural speech on May 20 will likely encompass Taiwan\u2019s relationship with the United States, the country\u2019s most important ally. Experts also await his plans for the New Southbound Policy as well as domestic issues like energy, housing prices, and low wages that would inevitably affect his room for complex foreign policy maneuvers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Importantly, however, Lai must reassure his international audiences that he will maintain the status quo Tsai leaves behind. He has rigorously asserted that he will do so, staying within the guidelines Tsai has set. The expectation is that he will use the Republic of China (Taiwan) in his speech. While Lai did indeed once describe himself as a \u201cpragmatic Taiwan independence worker,\u201d he always references the fundamental DPP position that Taiwan is already independent and thus there is no need to declare independence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the beginning of his presidency, Lai will inevitably need to balance domestic forces and foreign policy priorities delicately. His inaugural speech will not only be a promise to the people of Taiwan about his dedication to protecting Taiwan\u2019s sovereignty but also a reassurance to the international community, particularly the United States, that he would pursue that promise responsibly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S.-China-Taiwan relationship is complex. Having been vice president to Tsai Ing-wen for the past four years, Lai is likely cognizant of the nuances required to keep this relationship stable. If he chooses to carry on Tsai\u2019s approach \u2013 as he has vowed to do throughout his presidential campaign \u2013 his policies will likely lean toward defending the status quo and avoid actions that might inadvertently exacerbate tensions across the Taiwan Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That said, even if Lai does follow Tsai\u2019s approach to a tee, China will likely find ways to test Lai at the beginning of his presidency. One should expect small provocations on the part of the Chinese Communist Party as a means to probe Lai\u2019s crisis management skills and red lines. It will require patience and deft policy maneuvers to keep the peace, a daunting task for any Taiwanese leader.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Lai Ching-te, Taiwan\u2019s fifth popularly elected president, is set to be sworn in on May 20 and will deliver his inaugural address in front of the Presidential Office Building in Taipei. 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