{"id":6125,"date":"2024-05-18T15:23:25","date_gmt":"2024-05-18T07:23:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=6125"},"modified":"2024-05-18T15:23:30","modified_gmt":"2024-05-18T07:23:30","slug":"new-taiwan-president-to-set-tone-for-ties-with-china-at-inauguration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=6125","title":{"rendered":"New Taiwan president to set tone for ties with China at inauguration"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Taiwan’s incoming president, Lai Ching-te, will have the world’s attention when he delivers his inaugural address on Monday.
All ears will be on Lai\u2019s language and framing of his administration as officials in Beijing, Washington, Tokyo and elsewhere scrutinize every word on cross-strait relations, particularly those that could suggest a departure from an already precarious status quo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Special focus will be on how the 64-year-old, who once described himself as a \u201cpragmatic worker for Taiwanese independence,\u201d refers to the democratic island, how he talks about its autonomy and on which level he will try to navigate relations with Beijing amid a heightened risk of conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Currently vice president, Lai will be taking the reins from President Tsai Ing-wen after winning a hotly contested election in January that was largely framed as a choice between change and continuity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

His victory \u2014 and that of running mate Hsiao Bi-khim \u2014 made the independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) the first in the self-ruled island\u2019s history to win three straight presidential terms, a vote of confidence for a party that has long emphasized that Taiwan is already a de facto sovereign nation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

China, which views it as a breakaway province, has not ruled out seizing the island by force despite growing indications that the United States and its allies may be willing to defend it \u2014 a situation that has turned Taiwan into one of the most worrisome flashpoints in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lai is well aware of this, which is why he is likely to strike a conciliatory tone in his address.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The DPP leader will try to lower tensions by sending a \u201cgoodwill\u201d message to Beijing in an attempt to \u201cstrengthen dialogue and reduce the spiral of hostility,\u201d Taiwan’s Central News Agency reported this week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simona Grano, a senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, said that while Lai will likely reiterate his party\u2019s \u201cfirm position\u201d that Taiwan is already de facto sovereign, he will offer an olive branch to Beijing by pointing to the island\u2019s constitution and the importance of having healthy and peaceful cross-strait exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He will likely also avoid any talk of independence \u2014 something that would impact ties with China as well as the United States, the island\u2019s top weapons supplier and most vocal international backer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLai knows that Washington is in \u2018stabilization\u2019 mode with Beijing, so he will not want to be seen as interfering with that,\u201d said Douglas H. Paal, a former director of the American Institute of Taiwan, the de facto U.S. embassy on the island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The president-elect has already said he is open to dialogue, calling on Beijing to engage with the island\u2019s “democratically elected and legitimate government” to protect peace across the strait, while warning against China “solely (having) exchanges with the opposition under a certain prerequisite.”<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is unlikely, however, that this will be enough to prompt Beijing to reconsider its position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the opposition Kuomintang has backed the \u201c1992 consensus,\u201d a term that refers to a tacit understanding reached between Beijing and Taipei that year that there is only “one China” \u2014 with each side having its own interpretation of what that means \u2014 the DPP has refused to acknowledge the deal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This has led to Beijing refusing to talk to any DPP-led government, a stance likely to continue under the Lai administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe real issue is not Lai’s willingness to talk with Beijing, but Beijing’s willingness and terms for talking with Taipei,\u201d Paal said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, it\u2019s unclear how much room Lai would have to maneuver with Beijing, having pledged to continue following his predecessor’s footsteps on foreign relations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLai is unlikely to deviate significantly from Tsai’s cross-strait approach and may reference the Republic of China’s constitution \u2014 as he did in his acceptance speech on election night \u2014 as a means of signaling to Beijing, Washington and domestic audiences that he intends to maintain the status quo,\u201d said Amanda Hsiao, a senior China analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank. Republic of China is Taiwan’s official name.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Taking this into consideration, Lai\u2019s “goodwill” message will likely be designed to balance deterrence with reassurance, said Wen-Ti Sung, an expert on cross-strait relations at the Australian National University.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lai will aim to convey to the world that Taipei will strengthen ties with the U.S. and other like-minded partners, while reassuring China that he has no plans for drastic moves that would inflame Chinese nationalist sentiment or make life difficult for the leadership in Beijing, Sung said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Lai\u2019s hotly anticipated speech will be about much more than just cross-strait ties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The incoming president will also focus on key issues such as the economy and energy transition, as well as uniting the Taiwanese people and reaching out to the opposition, especially after the DPP lost its majority in Taiwan\u2019s 113-seat parliament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another key element of Lai\u2019s speech will be plans to further deepen ties with international partners.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As China seeks to isolate Taiwan diplomatically, Taipei has been switching to a more pragmatic approach of expanding unofficial relations with democracies that share its ideals, particularly powers such as the United States, Japan, Australia, India and European nations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A key element of this approach has been the expectation that closer cooperation will guide the island to increased autonomy and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cLai will want to maintain positive relations with the U.S. not only because of Washington’s military assistance, but also because America’s posture toward Taiwan has an impact on the extent to which other democracies are willing to engage with the island,\u201d Hsiao said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He is also expected to follow a similar approach with Tokyo, especially after telling a visiting delegation from Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party that he looked forward \u201cto strengthening bilateral cooperation in all areas\u201d with Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lai has been particularly active in courting Japan, following in the footsteps of Tsai \u2014 who played a key role in establishing the robust unofficial relationship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, the two sides have not only sought closer economic cooperation, but also political coordination, with an aim of institutionalizing talks between their respective ruling parties, including “two-plus-two” meetings involving their foreign affairs and defense committee chairs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As regional tensions mount, influential Japanese policymakers have taken the once-taboo step of speaking publicly about the importance of maintaining \u201cpeace and stability in the Taiwan Strait,\u201d offering a hint that the two sides are also seeking to deepen security cooperation amid fears that a contingency over the island could prompt an existential crisis for Japan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cChina has fostered the conditions for improving ties between Tokyo and Taipei, and I expect that trend to continue,\u201d Paal said, in reference to Beijing\u2019s increasingly assertive military moves around the island.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tokyo\u2019s growing support will be highlighted by more than 30 pro-Taiwan Japanese lawmakers set to attend Monday’s inauguration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Washington, which has continued unofficial exchanges with Taipei since Lai\u2019s election, is expected to send a bipartisan delegation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As for China\u2019s response to Lai\u2019s speech, experts say that even if he adopts a more moderate tone on relations, this would fall far short of what Beijing seeks, prompting it to signal its disapproval in at least some form.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is uncertain, however, is whether China will react by conducting large-scale military exercises as a warning to Lai, whom it has repeatedly dubbed a \u201cseparatist\u201d and “troublemaker.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Grano said this will depend on several factors, including the importance Beijing places on keeping its own relationship with Washington on a stable track, at least in terms of communications, until the November U.S. presidential election is decided.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean Beijing won\u2019t react.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given China’s quieter approach since the Taiwanese elections, Hsiao said Beijing might continue to opt for diplomatic and political pressure tactics to challenge Taiwanese sovereignty rather than hold a major military exercise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Whatever Beijing\u2019s reaction, Washington will be watching closely.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Taiwan’s incoming president, Lai Ching-te, will have the world’s attention when he delivers his inaugural address on Monday.All ears will be on Lai\u2019s language and framing of his administration as officials in Beijing, Washington, Tokyo and elsewhere scrutinize every word on cross-strait relations, particularly those that could suggest a departure from an already precarious status […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":6126,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1733,1754,603],"class_list":["post-6125","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","tag-new","tag-president","tag-taiwan"],"yoast_head":"\nNew Taiwan president to set tone for ties with China at inauguration - 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