{"id":4649,"date":"2024-02-10T08:58:23","date_gmt":"2024-02-10T00:58:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=4649"},"modified":"2024-02-18T15:22:28","modified_gmt":"2024-02-18T07:22:28","slug":"super-el-nino-is-here-but-la-nina-looks-likely-whats-in-store-for-the-coming-months","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=4649","title":{"rendered":"\u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 is here, but La Ni\u00f1a looks likely. What\u2019s in store for the coming months"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uff08Sea-surface temperature anomalies are shown in the area of the eastern Pacific Ocean where a very strong El Ni\u00f1o is present on Wednesday, February 7, 2024. Darker oranges represent warmer than normal conditions while blues represent cooler than normal conditions. These ocean temperatures help determine the strength of El Ni\u00f1o. \uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The current El Ni\u00f1o is now one of the strongest on record, new data shows, catapulting it into rare \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d territory, but forecasters believe that La Ni\u00f1a is likely to develop in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the main ways scientists determine whether El Ni\u00f1o is present, and a key indicator of its strength, is through ocean surface temperatures. And from November to January, the temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean where El Ni\u00f1o originates was 2 degrees Celsius warmer than normal, according to NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction center \u2013 a threshold that has only been breached six times on record. It means a very strong El Ni\u00f1o is ongoing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But this so-called super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s strength won\u2019t last long \u2013 it has reached its peak strength and is headed on a downward trend, said Michelle L\u2019Heureux, a climate scientist with the Climate Prediction Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe\u2019re slightly past peak [strength] at this point,\u201d L\u2019Heureux told CNN.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasters believe the switch could get totally flipped to La Ni\u00f1a \u2013 cooler than average conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific \u2013 as soon as summer, but more likely by fall, and issued a La Ni\u00f1a watch on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o influences weather around the globe, so its strength and demise will continue to have an impact on the weather we experience in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The stronger an El Ni\u00f1o gets, the more likely it is to influence the global weather over time. But its impact is measured on a seasonal timescale, and not in terms of individual weather events, L\u2019Heureux explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1os have hallmark seasonal signs, particularly on winter in the US.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uff08Average conditions during an El Ni\u00f1o winter across the continental US\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A warmer-than-average winter with less snow across the northern tier of the US is one of these signs. This exact scenario is unfolding this winter. Multiple states in the region experienced the warmest-ever December and an overall toasty January with paltry amounts of snow \u2013 a trend that\u2019s continuing into February.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o also manifests as a wetter-than-average winter for the southern tier of the US as it often points the storm-steering jet stream south.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A serious drought in parts of the South has largely been wiped out this winter by repeated bouts of rain from storm systems. And California was just deluged by back-to-back potent atmospheric river-fueled storms that unloaded record rainfall and hundreds of mudslides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o has been known to enhance atmospheric river events on the West Coast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cIt\u2019s difficult to attribute any single weather system or series of them to El Ni\u00f1o. With that said, it seems probable that there were some links to El Ni\u00f1o [with California\u2019s storms],\u201d L\u2019Heureux noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The additional source of heat from warmer water in the eastern Pacific Ocean can be especially impactful to weather patterns in the western portions of both Americas that border the Pacific.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The recent disastrous, deadly fires in Chile reflect the El Ni\u00f1o connection. The pattern is linked to decreased precipitation in the northern part of the country which contributed to extensive drought that left areas tinder-dry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uff08Aerial view of the destruction wrought by forest fires in the Valparaiso region of Chile on February 6, 2024.\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

El Ni\u00f1o has also left its fingerprints on temperature and precipitation patterns in several other continents, including South America, Africa, Australia and parts of Asia, according to L\u2019Heureux.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But L\u2019Heureux is careful to caution that not every extreme weather event can be attributed directly to El Ni\u00f1o in a warming world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cEl Ni\u00f1o impacts don\u2019t occur in isolation anymore. There\u2019s certainly a climate change component,\u201d L\u2019Heureux said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Human-caused climate change is driving up global temperatures, leading to more frequent and intense extreme weather events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1a watch issued<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

A La Ni\u00f1a watch is now in effect, meaning conditions are favorable for a La Ni\u00f1a to form within the next six months, according to a forecast released by the CPC Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The center is eyeing this transition to unfold during the summer months, with La Ni\u00f1a conditions increasingly likely to be in effect through the fall.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a 55% chance of La Ni\u00f1a to develop from June to August and a 77% chance from September to November, according to L\u2019Heureux and the forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This abrupt pattern flip is not unprecedented. Historically, strong El Ni\u00f1os are followed by La Ni\u00f1a conditions about 60% of the time, L\u2019Heureux said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Depending on when \u2013 or even if \u2013 La Ni\u00f1a materializes, this large-scale pattern flip could have significant implications for how the rest of the year\u2019s weather plays out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La Ni\u00f1as often produce the opposite weather patterns as El Ni\u00f1o, including a more active Atlantic hurricane season. La Ni\u00f1a conditions were in place for a portion of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record: 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A quicker switch to La Ni\u00f1a could mean more of an impact on the upcoming hurricane season, which begins in June and typically peaks in September \u2013 particularly if oceans stay exceptionally warm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Last year\u2019s Atlantic hurricane season was unusually active amid record warm oceans, despite attempts by El Ni\u00f1o to tamp down activity.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uff08Sea-surface temperature anomalies are shown in the area of the eastern Pacific Ocean where a very strong El Ni\u00f1o is present on Wednesday, February 7, 2024. Darker oranges represent warmer than normal conditions while blues represent cooler than normal conditions. These ocean temperatures help determine the strength of El Ni\u00f1o. \uff09 The current El Ni\u00f1o […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":4650,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[1986,2009,2010],"class_list":["post-4649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","tag-el","tag-ni","tag-strength"],"yoast_head":"\n\u2018Super El Ni\u00f1o\u2019 is here, but La Ni\u00f1a looks likely. 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