{"id":17351,"date":"2026-09-03T08:40:57","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T00:40:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=17351"},"modified":"2026-09-03T08:41:03","modified_gmt":"2026-09-03T00:41:03","slug":"why-america-should-fear-gerrymandering-not-voter-fraud","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=17351","title":{"rendered":"Why America should fear gerrymandering, not voter fraud"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\uff08Midterm Election\uff09<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2026 midterms are fast approaching, and discussions of voter fraud are ubiquitous. Yet election manipulation is certain to occur during the midterms \u2014 though much of it will have little to do with how votes are cast or counted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather, it is how congressional maps were redrawn in several states over the past year to ensure that certain candidates would win their seats. In doing so, and by shifting attention away from partisan district boundaries to the voters themselves, politicians have normalized map meddling while guiding voters to look for threats in all the wrong places.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since 2020, there has been a new standard mode of operation spreading for elected officials; they either win their election, or if they lose, they claim that the election was stolen from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Those claiming stolen elections have been from both the Republican and Democratic parties. The phenomenon has become more visible, amplified by social media, dating back to the 2020 election when Joe Biden defeated incumbent President Trump. However, it was heard even in 2016, when then candidate Donald Trump, anticipating a loss to Hillary Clinton, preemptively claimed that the election could be rigged against him. After Trump won, Clinton proceeded to claim that the election was stolen from her.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue up for debate is whether election vote counts can be manipulated to yield a different outcome. In theory, they can. However, the more salient issue is whether such manipulation can be executed with no evidence left behind for others to uncover during audits or recounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are numerous ways that states conduct elections and count votes. Multiple layers of infrastructure make a large-scale manipulation of votes without detection very difficult. There has also been no evidence that foreign actors have successfully changed votes or, more importantly, changed the outcome in a U.S. federal election.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For a person or group to compromise the outcome of an election, voting infrastructure or ballots would have to be tampered with so that a vote for one candidate would be disqualified or counted for another candidate. Even with guardrails placed around these infrastructures, including bipartisan review and handling protocols, small-scale irregularities can occur. But it is extraordinarily difficult to covertly alter enough votes to change the election outcome without leaving behind incriminating evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If paper ballots are used or are available, then a paper trail exists to count and, if necessary, recount ballots. Around 99 percent of registered voters live in an area that offers some form of paper vote documentation. Such physical records provide a natural audit trail that helps protect the integrity of the election and the results.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When one begins to stack all these unlikely events together, it becomes clear that accusations of election fraud lack credible evidence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet Trump and many of his political allies have continued along this path. This recently included Mike Lindell, who lost his primary race for governor to Lisa Demuth by 11 points. His claims of irregularities in the vote totals are a continuation of such rhetoric. Note that when election irregularities have been investigated, the outcomes have rarely led to an overturn of the certified election results. There are exceptions, of course; after Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) lost his primary, he explicitly denounced those who claim election fraud.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Constitution leaves most election administration to the states. Yet there is another form of election manipulation that the Constitution is silent on: gerrymandering. With computational redistricting algorithms, mapmakers can configure voters into districts, packing some voters together and cracking others apart, producing districts in which the general-election outcomes are insensitive to changes in voter shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasts for the 2026 midterm election show that 21 of the 435 House Seats are toss-ups, and another 16 are leaning to one party, according to the Cook Political Report. Unlike covert vote manipulation, gerrymandering represents electoral manipulation that is overtly measurable and often legal under current laws, with negative consequences for democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Undoubtedly, individual votes can be manipulated. But translating such manipulation into changed election outcomes that remain undetected is very difficult. On the other hand, election manipulation via gerrymandering is openly and unabashedly done by state lawmakers, taking the power of choice away from voters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The biggest threat to the value of an individual vote may not be someone secretly changing it. It may be drawing a district with such care that the outcome is effectively determined before the voter ever enters the booth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, for those who claim that their election was stolen, the appropriate response is: \u201cShow me the evidence.\u201d As for gerrymandering, the evidence already exists in every state congressional map, in plain sight for all to witness.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sheldon H. Jacobson, Ph.D., is a professor in computer science at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. As a data scientist, he applies his expertise in data-driven, risk-based decision-making to evaluate and inform public policy. He serves as the director of the Institute for Computational Redistricting.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\uff08Midterm Election\uff09 The 2026 midterms are fast approaching, and discussions of voter fraud are ubiquitous. Yet election manipulation is certain to occur during the midterms \u2014 though much of it will have little to do with how votes are cast or counted. 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