{"id":10976,"date":"2025-05-08T18:54:23","date_gmt":"2025-05-08T10:54:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=10976"},"modified":"2025-05-08T18:54:28","modified_gmt":"2025-05-08T10:54:28","slug":"houthi-ceasefire-hands-trump-a-win-ahead-of-middle-east-trip","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=10976","title":{"rendered":"Houthi ceasefire hands Trump a win ahead of Middle East trip"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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A ceasefire deal between Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels and the U.S., mediated by Oman, has secured a tentative end to attacks on American ships in the Red Sea, but details are slim on the concessions made by both sides.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, the ceasefire allows the Trump administration to claim victory in clearing the pathway for commercial shipping. Attacks on vessels served to justify the military campaign against the designated-terrorist group in Yemen, which launched in earnest in mid-March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe Houthis have suffered major losses because of the airstrikes,\u201d said Nadwa Al-Dawsari, associate fellow with the Middle East Institute.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAs the Houthis do whenever they are under serious military pressure, they agree to a ceasefire. In a way, the ceasefire for Iran and the Houthis is to prevent irreversible damage to Houthi capabilities on the ground.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The deal comes ahead of a high-profile trip by President Trump to the Gulf nations next week, with his first stop in Saudi Arabia. The U.S. is also pursuing talks with Iran to defang its nuclear program \u2014 and the Islamic Republic is a primary backer to the Houthis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u201cTrump clearly wanted an off-ramp so that he could claim progress before his visit to the region, and he also wanted to remove an irritant in the Iran nuclear talks,\u201d said Daniel Shapiro, a distinguished fellow with the Atlantic Council\u2019s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative who most recently served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Middle East in the Biden administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cSo he took a real, but rather modest, win in the Houthi commitment not to target U.S. ships,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Trump credited the U.S. strikes with bringing the Houthis to the table. Since mid-March, the U.S. military has said it has struck more than 1,000 targets in Yemen as part of Operation Rough Rider. The strikes have killed \u201chundreds\u201d of Houthi fighters and leaders, including senior Houthi missile and UAV officials, and degraded their capabilities, Pentagon officials claimed late last month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWe hit them very hard. They had a great capacity to withstand punishment. They took tremendous punishment\u2026 But we honored their commitment and their word, they gave us their word that they wouldn\u2019t be shooting ships anymore and we honor that,\u201d Trump said, during a swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office on Wednesday for his new ambassador to China, former Sen. David Perdue (R-Ga).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al-Dawsari said the ceasefire agreement came to fruition through different interventions and with different interests at play. She pointed to a visit from Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman Al Saud to Tehran in mid-April, where the message was for Iran to rein in the Houthis attacks on the shipping lanes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s one major factor,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al-Dawsari said the ceasefire might be sustainable but not durable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cA ceasefire for the Houthis and Iran is an opportunity to sort of regroup, restrategize, the Houthis will replenish their stockpile through the massive smuggling network that they have created with the help of IRGC [Iran\u2019s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps] across the Red Sea,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Al-Dawsari said the Houthis, and by extension Iran, are working to project power into and from East Africa, and that a resumption of attacks on the Red Sea is likely to take place as a way to expand their influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThese are groups that think long-term, we might not see attacks on ships in the next couple of years, but eventually it will happen,\u201d she said. \u201cBut by then the Houthis will have more strength, and also with a wide outreach across the region, that it will be impossible to put them back in the box.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As a way to bolster their image, the Houthis also used the ceasefire to claim victory by excluding a halt on attacks against Israel, a major feature of their campaign of strikes which began in fall of 2023 for what they say is an opposition to Israel\u2019s war in Gaza.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Houthi chief negotiator Mohammed Abdul Salam told the Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV that the group\u2019s support for Palestinians in the Gaza Strip \u201chad not changed,\u201d a justification for their strikes on Israel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cWhat changed is the American position, but our position remains firm,\u201d he said, according to the BBC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei said the Islamic Republic welcomed the ceasefire, even as it still held the U.S. complicit in Israel\u2019s war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Baqaei \u201cpraised the steadfastness of the great nation of Yemen in supporting the oppressed people of Palestine in the face of genocide and occupation as well as the Yemenis\u2019 resilience against repeated US attacks over the past year.\u201d the foreign ministry said in a post on X.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel and the Houthis are engaged in an escalating back-and-forth of military strikes. The Houthis on Monday successfully hit Tel Aviv\u2019s Ben Gurion airport with a ballistic missile \u2014 a major feat that temporarily disrupted flights and demonstrated a failure of Israel\u2019s multilayered air defense system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel responded with devastating strikes on Yemen\u2019s Sanaa airport, under Houthi control, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claiming they have completely disabled the airport, and a senior Houthi official saying the damages amount to $500 million.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel\u2019s exclusion from the deal, and the reported U.S. snubbing of informing Israel ahead of the deal, is a concern on whether Washington and Jerusalem are in lockstep.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAnnouncing [the ceasefire] without informing Israel in advance, and two days after the missile strike at Ben Gurion Airport, suggests Trump is willing to tolerate continued Houthi attacks on Israel as long as the U.S. isn\u2019t being targeted,\u201d Shapiro said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThat\u2019s a recipe for attacks to continue, and frankly, for continued conflict in the region.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nadwa, of the Middle East Institute, said the U.S. needs a strategy, working with its allies in the region and the Yemeni government in Aden, in the south of the country, to degrade the Houthis\u2019 military capabilities on the ground for any gains to become durable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A ceasefire deal between Yemen\u2019s Houthi rebels and the U.S., mediated by Oman, has secured a tentative end to attacks on American ships in the Red Sea, but details are slim on the concessions made by both sides. Still, the ceasefire allows the Trump administration to claim victory in clearing the pathway for commercial shipping. 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