{"id":10135,"date":"2025-03-11T15:40:03","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T07:40:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=10135"},"modified":"2025-03-11T15:40:08","modified_gmt":"2025-03-11T07:40:08","slug":"larry-summers-odds-of-a-recession-close-to-50-50","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/?p=10135","title":{"rendered":"Larry Summers: Odds of a recession \u2018close to 50\/50\u2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image alignwide size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"784\" height=\"442\" src=\"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-2.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-10136\" srcset=\"https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-2.jpg 784w, https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/tingchao.xyz\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/1-2-768x433.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 784px) 100vw, 784px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday that the odds of a recession are \u201cclose to 50\/50.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI told [Kasie Hunt] @CNN today, I think there is a real possibility of a recession,\u201d Summers said in a thread on the social platform X.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI would have said a couple of months ago a recession was really unlikely this year. Now, it\u2019s probably not 50\/50, but getting close to 50\/50. There is one central reason. Economic policies that are completely counterproductive,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stock market on Monday started the week with intense losses amid rising American anxieties around the economy, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing with a loss of 890 points, down 2.1 percent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since the beginning of the month, stocks have dropped steadily due to underwhelming economic data and topsy-turvy Trump administration tariff announcements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Monday, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said he would \u201cjust be very wary, Joe, of conversations about recession or not, given that we had two negative quarters, that used to be a recession under Biden, and then that wasn\u2019t a recession.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Texas lt. governor pushes to rebrand New York strip steak<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI think that what\u2019s going to happen is the first quarter is going to squeak into the positive category, and then the second quarter is going to take off as everybody sees the reality of the tax cuts,\u201d Hassett told CNBC\u2019s Joe Kernen in an interview.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Beginning Monday, Ontario\u2019s government is also putting a 25 percent surcharge on electricity exports to three states in the U.S. in response to U.S. tariffs aimed at Canada.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cAll the emphasis on tariffs and all the ambiguity and uncertainty has both chilled demand and caused prices to go up,\u2019 Summers said in his Monday X thread. \u201cWe are getting the worst of both worlds \u2013 concerns about inflation and an economic downturn and more uncertainty about the future and that slows everything down.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Hill has reached out to the White House for comment.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said Monday that the odds of a recession are \u201cclose to 50\/50.\u201d \u201cI told [Kasie Hunt] @CNN today, I think there is a real possibility of a recession,\u201d Summers said in a thread on the social platform X. \u201cI would have said a couple of months ago a recession was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":10136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[3178,3179],"class_list":["post-10135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-international","tag-larry","tag-summers"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v19.0 - 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